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Key Private Bank Investment Brief

Weekly market and wealth management insights 

Our leading experts bring you their timely research and insights on topics that matter most to you. With commentary on Fed activity, inflation, economic growth, interest rates, equity markets, bond markets, investment strategy, and more, our Chief Investment Office delves into today’s trends and tomorrow’s opportunities.

Latest Investment Brief

Monday, 7/14/2025

Key Takeaways:

One Big Beautiful Bill = Pro-growth.

One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) was signed into law on July 4, 2025. A pivot towards pro-growth policies should be supportive for corporate profits (and thus stock prices) as we move through the second half of this year. OBBB should provide a cushion for economic growth in 2026, a time when growth was previously expected to slow, according to Bridgewater. The stock market does not currently appear worried about the long-term deficit implications of the Bill.

Persistently high deficits could result in structurally higher interest rates, all else equal. Dollar weakness may also be a continuing theme as international investors may continue to reallocate away from the United States.

Tariffs are re-emerging as a tool in the Administration’s policy arsenal.

After seeing tariff rates lowered post-Liberation Day, announcements since July 4 have increased tariffs for all ten of the largest US trading partners, according to Wolfe Research.

The implications from tariffs are a bigger unknown. No one knows what will be implemented, how long tariffs will remain in force, how countries will respond, how companies will respond, or how consumers will respond.

Uncertainty is, perhaps, the only certainty. As we’ve noted before, while many people may not be inclined to take Trump literally, they should take him (and his tariff threats) seriously.

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We gather data and information from specialized sources and financial databases including but not limited to Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Chicago Board of Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), Dow Jones / Dow Jones Newsplus, FactSet, Federal Reserve and corresponding 12 district banks / Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), ICE BofA (Bank of America) MOVE Index, Morningstar / Morningstar.com, Standard & Poor’s and Wall Street Journal / WSJ.com.

 

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Any opinions, projections, or recommendations contained herein are subject to change without notice, are those of the individual author(s), and may not necessarily represent the views of KeyBank or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates.

This material presented is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or product or to employ a specific investment or tax planning strategy.

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