Key Wealth Investment Brief
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Our leading experts bring you their timely research and insights on topics that matter most to you. With commentary on Fed activity, inflation, economic growth, interest rates, equity markets, bond markets, investment strategy, and more, our Chief Investment Office delves into today’s trends and tomorrow’s opportunities.
Latest Investment Brief
Monday, 3/23/2026
Previous Weekly Insights
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Recap
The Fed Is Standing Still – But the Ground Is Shifting
March 18, 2026
Key Takeaways:
- The Fed held rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75%, signaling continued patience but also an uncertain outlook.
- Changes in the Statement point to a more balanced framework.
- Fed Governor Miran dissented in favor of a 0.25% cut.
- Inflation concerns remain, but upside growth is encouraging.
- The dot-plot suggests a measured path forward, not an urgent easing cycle.
- This is not yet a pivot, but the formation of one might be developing.
Policy Decision: Steady, But Not Static
The fed funds rate was left unchanged at a target range of 3.50%–3.75%. The policy statement showed only modest adjustments. Chairman Jerome Powell struck a familiar tone: data-dependent, patient, and measured.
Importantly, the changes to the statement were subtle but telling. The Committee acknowledged a more gradually balanced set of risks, with a modestly reduced emphasis on upside inflation concerns and a growing recognition of potential softening in economic momentum. The statement also noted geopolitical developments, including tensions in the Middle East, as a source of uncertainty. While the overall framework remains intact, these adjustments suggest a Fed that is beginning to shift from a predominantly inflation-focused stance toward a more two-sided risk assessment.
This does not yet constitute a policy pivot, but it does mark a meaningful evolution in how the Committee is framing the balance of risks. If sustained, this shift in tone lays the groundwork for a policy path that is increasingly sensitive to downside risks, not just inflation persistence.
The Dot Plot: A Measured Path, Not a Rush
The updated dot plot reinforces a message of patience. While the distribution shows some dispersion, the center of gravity suggests a gradual and deliberate path, not an aggressive easing cycle.
A meaningful number of participants continue to signal limited cuts this year, with only a small cohort projecting a more pronounced easing path. The presence of lower-end dots highlights growing concern around downside risks – but these remain in the minority. The takeaway is clear: the Committee is open to easing but not yet convinced it is necessary.
SEP: A More Resilient Economy, but Not Yet Mission Accomplished
The March Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) delivered a subtle but important shift in the Fed’s narrative: the economy is proving more resilient than previously expected, even as the path back to price stability remains incomplete. The Fed upgraded its real GDP outlook across all forecast years, signaling stronger underlying momentum:
This broad-based upward revision – particularly the increase in the longer-run estimate – suggests policymakers see less structural drag and greater economic capacity than previously assumed. In short, the economy is not slowing as quickly as expected.
Labor Market: Still Tight, Gradual Cooling
The unemployment rate projections were largely steady, reinforcing the view that labor market rebalancing remains gradual:
Despite restrictive policy, the Fed continues to expect only modest softening in labor conditions, consistent with a soft-landing baseline rather than a recession scenario.
Inflation: Progress, but Still Above Target Near-Term
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Inflation projections reflect continued disinflation, but not a clean victory:
The upward revision to 2026 inflation underscores a key tension: while inflation is trending lower, it is doing so more slowly than previously expected, keeping the Fed cautious.
What It Means: Stronger Growth Complicates the Policy Path
Taken together, the updated projections reinforce a critical message:
- Stronger growth reduces urgency for rate cuts.
- Persistent inflation limits the Fed’s flexibility.
- A soft landing remains the base case, but not a guaranteed outcome.
The combination of firmer growth and stickier inflation helps explain why the Committee remains hesitant to signal an aggressive easing cycle. If anything, the SEP suggests the Fed is becoming more confident in the economy’s durability but less confident that inflation will return to target quickly.
Powell’s Press Conference: Calm, Controlled, Intentional
Chair Powell’s messaging was consistent with the statement and projections. He emphasized continued data dependence, confidence that policy is appropriately restrictive, and a willingness to remain patient as conditions evolve. As Powell emphasized, “We are well positioned to wait for greater confidence before making any adjustments to our policy stance.” Importantly, Powell avoided signaling urgency around rate cuts. At the same time, he did not push back against the idea that risks are becoming more balanced.
Chair Powell said he will serve as chairman until his successor is confirmed by the Senate. He also said he has no intention to leave the Fed until the ongoing DOJ investigation is over. He stated that he has not yet made a decision as to whether he will complete his term as a Fed board member (which ends in 2028). This pushes back against the case for a dovish tilt premised on Kevin Warsh taking over as Chair in the near term.
On broader issues – including geopolitical developments and leadership uncertainty – Powell remained measured, reinforcing the Fed’s commitment to its mandate while acknowledging an increasingly complex backdrop. In the words of Powell himself, “I want to emphasize, nobody knows, the economic effects could be smaller or much bigger. We just don’t know.”
What This Means for Investors
For investors, this meeting reinforces a critical shift that the Fed is moving from a one-sided inflation fight to a two-sided risk framework. This shift has meaningful implications:
- Front-end rates may remain anchored in the near term.
- Volatility could increase as markets recalibrate around timing and magnitude of rate cuts.
- Credit markets will continue to balance higher yields against widening risk considerations.
- Portfolio positioning should remain disciplined, with a focus on liquidity, high credit quality, and flexibility.
Importantly, today’s environment continues to reward incremental yield capture, particularly as spreads have widened relative to earlier in the year.
The Bottom Line
The Fed did not move rates, but its narrative is evolving. This is not yet a pivot or a signal of imminent easing. This is something more subtle and arguably more important; it’s a shift in how the Fed sees the world. And when that changes, policy is never far behind.
Key Takeaways:
Our “three disruptive forces” that we previously wrote about in our 2026 Market and Economic Outlook: Managing Wealth in an Age of Massive Disruption and Profound Change continue to collide, causing major disruptions (and challenges and opportunities, too).
1) The democratization of private markets is facing strains as investors’ misunderstanding/misuse of illiquidity has created challenges. Emotionally-driven selling can create opportunities for patient and diligent investors. We continue to recommend selective exposure to private investments where appropriate.
2) The democratization of private markets helped (indirectly) give rise to artificial intelligence (AI), but now “disruption from within” has triggered fears over job displacement and major industry disarray (i.e., software). This could pose medium-term challenges, but the longer-term benefits from AI could be immense, providing opportunities for patient investors.
3) The war in Iran escalated further last week, another example of our third theme for 2026: nationalism. We still believe the conflict could last several weeks (not days), but risks are growing, suggesting the conflict could last a few months. If so, complacent investors could capitulate, creating near-term volatility. Yet, while short-term risks are negatively skewed, if our base case call of “no recession” ultimately plays out, opportunities will emerge for long-term investors.
With respect to Iran, as noted last week (and again above), risks are skewed to the downside (i.e., troops on the ground; terrorist attack in the U.S., etc.), but things could quickly surprise on the upside (i.e., Iran concedes; Trump declares victory, etc.). The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for now.
What would likely trigger a recession? Oil prices at more than $140/barrel and gasoline at more than $4/gallon for some period of time. Higher prices at the pump are initially inflationary, but ultimately deflationary. We don’t believe today’s situation will be a repeat of the 1970s, but we continue to recommend real assets as a strong portfolio diversifier.
Bottom line – how to cope with extreme uncertainty.
We advise staying diversified, allowing some cash to accrue, but being prepared to buy the dip if fear-driven selling becomes rampant. Watch for a spike in implied volatility (VIX), where higher readings (above 43) indicate elevated levels of fear.
On Wednesday, March 4, 2026, Key Wealth held a national client call with special guest Brian Portnoy. The discussion centered around factors that drive good financial decisions, the difference between chasing “more” and achieving true financial wellbeing, and how to find clarity when the world feels anything but clear.
The call replay link is above, and some of our own thoughts on these important themes are below.
Accept the fact that uncertainty is always prevalent. Admitting you don’t know what the future holds (no one does) can be somewhat liberating as it forces you to focus more of your time on what truly matters.
Incorporate a wide range of outcomes into your plan; focus on probabilities not predictions.
Incorporate a “rules-based” approach into your financial plan: “If stocks drop by 10%, I will buy ___%. If stocks drop another 10%, I will buy ___%."
Extend your time horizon and diversify across various scenarios. This means avoiding trying to “time the market” and diversifying by geography, by size, by sector, and by security.
Focus on what’s important and what you can control. You can’t control the future, but you can control your risk profile, time horizon, asset allocation, asset location, investment expenses, and, most importantly, your reaction.
Equity Takeaways:
Stocks rose in early Monday trading. The S&P 500 rose approximately 1.1%, to 6706. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose approximately 1.3%, while small caps rose a similar amount. International shares were generally 1.5% to 2.5% higher.
Recent price action for the S&P 500 Index has remained rangebound, but continued signs of weakness are emerging. The recent pattern is similar to the late 2024 / early 2025 pattern prior to the “Liberation Day” selloff in April 2025.
Volatility seems likely to continue over the near-term. The 21-day moving average for the S&P 500 crossed below the 100-day moving average, implying that the stock market is no longer in an uptrend. Markets that are no longer trending higher tend to be more vulnerable to corrections.
Correlation between stocks has also increased (also similar to what we saw in early 2025). Correlation generally increases during volatile periods, as investors tend to sell assets en masse.
Overall stock market volatility has surged relative to individual single stock volatility. This type of market action is another sign that macroeconomic events are driving stock prices, and individual company fundamentals are taking a backseat for the moment.
Last week was unprecedented in terms of oil price volatility. Last Monday, March 9, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil traded within a trading range of $38 on a single day (intraday high to low). For the entire week, WTI crude traded as low as around $80/barrel before closing close to $100/barrel.
Fixed Income Takeaways:
Treasury yields have risen across the curve in recent weeks, with short-term yields rising more than long-term yields (a.k.a., a “bear flattener”). In early Monday trading, yields were falling 5–7 basis points (bps) across the curve, reversing some of the recent rise. Overall, 2-year Treasuries were yielding 3.68%, 5-year Treasuries 3.81%, 10-year Treasuries 4.22%, and 30-year Treasuries 4.86%.
Expectations for near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts have diminished in recent weeks due to rising inflation expectations. Two-year Treasury yields have risen by more than 30 basis points since the beginning of March. Short-term Treasury yields are more sensitive to Fed policy expectations than long-term Treasury yields.
The Fed will release their next Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) this week on Wednesday, March 18. The Fed is not expected to cut rates this week, but their comments on the forward outlook for inflation, economic growth, and interest rates will be closely watched.
New-issue corporate bond supply has been very heavy in March. Most deals have received solid demand, nevertheless spreads have widened somewhat in recent weeks. We continue to favor bonds from higher-quality, liquid issuers in today’s uncertain market.
Key Takeaways:
Our “three disruptive forces” that we previously wrote about in our 2026 Market and Economic Outlook: Managing Wealth in an Age of Massive Disruption and Profound Change are still causing major disruptions (and creating opportunities, too).
Last week, we noted that the war in Iran would last weeks (not days), stating that these attacks are different from those of June 2025. We also stated that Iran’s new leader and the scope of the war are key determinants of the outcome. This weekend, a new “hardline” leader was announced, and the war has escalated.
Last October (and again in February), we noted that artificial intelligence (AI) has entered a riskier phase. The war in Iran is overshadowing the AI narrative for now, yet we still believe that AI has the potential to unleash massive productivity and massive disruption. The timing of these dynamics is unknowable; diversification is strongly advised.
Private credit (which has been at the forefront of the democratization of private assets and AI) remains in the crosshairs, also giving rise to uncertainty and unknowable spillover effects. Some investors seem surprised over the lack of instant liquidity, yet illiquidity has always been a feature of alternative assets. Alternative managers now face a “narrative problem.” These achallenges don’t resolve quickly, but they can present potential outsized returns to investors who are patient and opportunistic. Due to structural opacity, volatility will likely persist, but we advise remaining disciplined and staying diversified.
Bottom line: Amidst these three forces of disruption and such immense uncertainty, we believe three strategies are warranted: 1) stay invested and avoid market timing; 2) focus on what you can control and compartmentalize what you can’t; and 3) harness volatility to strengthen portfolio diversification.
The war in Iran has escalated materially. President Trump has demanded “unconditional surrender,” while strikes on nonmilitary infrastructure could widen the war’s impact on Iranian civilians.
Over the weekend, Iran appointed Mojtaba Khamenei as the country’s new Supreme Leader. He is the 56-year-old son of former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and is likely to follow hardline ideologies. His formative years were spent fighting in the Iran/Iraq war; he has close ties to the military; and he lost his father, mother, wife, and son in recent attacks. President Trump called the appointment “unacceptable.”
Last week, oil prices rose more than 40% as the scope of the Iran conflict widened. Investors also moved into the safe haven of the U.S. dollar. The dollar index rose 1.3% versus the global currency basket on the week, while non-U.S. stock indices generally fell 7–10%. Since the start of the year, oil prices have risen more than 50%.
In overnight Sunday trading, oil prices spiked near $120 per barrel in thin trading before pulling back. By Monday’s opening bell, both West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude had stabilized just above $100.
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed due to the escalating conflict; very few ships are currently attempting passage. Approximately 20% of global oil demand and 20% of liquified natural gas (LNG) typically pass through the Strait daily, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).2 The longer the Strait remains closed, the more pressure we will see on global energy markets.
Despite the shock of higher oil prices, a recession is not a foregone conclusion. Rallies of over 100% in oil prices tend to put severe pressure on the economy, if maintained for several quarters, according to data from Alpine Macro. A sustained rally well above $100 for several quarters could damage the economy, but would Trump tolerate such a move in a mid-term election year?
Despite high volatility in global stock markets, global bond markets have held up reasonably well. Spreads widened last week, but the move was orderly. Global bond markets are not showing signs of panic yet.
Bottom line – how to cope with extreme uncertainty.
On Wednesday, March 4, 2026, Key Wealth held a national client call with special guest Brian Portnoy. The discussion centered around factors that drive good financial decisions; the difference between chasing “more” and achieving true financial wellbeing; and how to find clarity when the world feels anything but clear.
The call replay link is above, and some of our own thoughts on these important themes are below.
Accept the fact that uncertainty is always prevalent. Admitting you don’t know what the future holds (no one does) can be somewhat liberating, as it forces you to focus more of your time on what truly matters.
Incorporate a wide range of outcomes into your plan; focus on probabilities not predictions.
Incorporate a “rules-based” approach into your plan: “If stocks drop 10%, I will buy ___%. If stocks drop another 10%, I will buy ___%."
Extend your time horizon and diversify across various scenarios. This means avoiding trying to “time the market” and diversifying by geography, by size, by sector, and by security.
Focus on what’s important and what you can control. You can’t control the future, but you can control your risk profile, time horizon, asset allocation, asset location, investment expenses, and, most importantly, your reaction.
Equity Takeaways:
Stocks fell in early Monday trading. The S&P 500 fell approximately 1.5%, to 6642. The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell approximately 1.3%, while small caps fell approximately 2.9%. Non-U.S. shares remained under pressure, generally falling 1.5% to 2.5%.
The S&P 500 had been in a trading range since last October. The market finally broke lower last week and opened lower again on Monday. The 200-day moving average (currently about 6582) is now an important support level.
Signs of panic and stress are increasing. The spread between spot implied volatility (VIX) and the 3-month VIX future inverted last Friday. An inverted volatility curve tends to indicate panic, and in the past it has marked tradeable bottoms. This indicator is one of our favorite tactical indicators in times of panic.
Volatility has been trending higher all year. The VIX spiked to approximately 29.0 last week, versus its long-term average of 19.0. In early Monday trading, the VIX was approximately 31.4. Even in the low 30s, the VIX remains below levels that have historically generated outsized positive returns.
Fixed Income Takeaways:
Treasury yields rose last week as investors feared the inflationary impact of rising oil prices: 2-year Treasury yields rose 19 basis points (bps), and 10-year Treasury yields rose 20 bps during the week.
In early Monday trading, yields were 2–3 basis points higher across the curve. Overall, 2-year Treasuries were yielding 3.59%, 5-year Treasuries 3.75%, 10-year Treasuries 4.17%, and 30-year Treasuries 4.79%.
In recent weeks, the 2-year / 10-year Treasury curve has flattened as investors have begun to price fewer Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts for the full year 2026. For example, 2-year Treasury yields have risen relative to 10-year yields; 2-year Treasury yields are more sensitive to rate cut expectations than 10-year yields.
Credit spreads reached their narrowest levels in late January and have been drifting wider ever since. The move has been orderly. The spread on the investment-grade (IG) credit index reached 84 bps last week, about 12 bps higher than the January lows. The spread on the high-yield index was 293 bps last week, about 40 bps higher since late January.
Key Takeaways:
Last week, our three “forces of disruption” that we previously wrote about in our 2026 Market and Economic Outlook: Managing Wealth in an Age of Massive Disruption and Profound Change, all reached a boil:
- President Trump’s decision to attack Iran is another manifestation of rising nationalism giving rise to further uncertainty — and potentially higher inflation and higher deficits.
- A negative article regarding the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) was published, highlighting potentially ominous consequences triggered by AI disruption and also giving rise to further uncertainty.
- Private credit (which has been at the forefront of the democratization of private assets and AI) remains in the crosshairs, also giving rise to uncertainty and unknowable spillover effects.
Bottom line: Amidst these three forces of disruption and such immense uncertainty, we believe three strategies are warranted: 1) stay invested and avoid market timing; 2) focus on what you can control and compartmentalize what you can’t; and 3) harness volatility to strengthen portfolio diversification.
Iran: what we know/think about Trump’s decision to attack Iran.
President Trump’s actions are seemingly motivated by regime change, and he has said that “airstrikes will continue… as long as necessary.”3 But mid-term elections could cause him to pivot. Still, this is a different war from last year given a likely power vacuum, at least in the near-term.
The deaths of Iran’s supreme leader Khamenei and numerous other senior military officials have been confirmed. A temporary three-person constitutional council will oversee the succession process. Whoever is the next leader could play a pivotal role in the duration and the scope of this conflict.
Iran has returned fire on Israel and across the Middle East, including U.S.-linked installations. Air travel throughout the Middle East has been disrupted; traffic in/out of the Strait of Hormuz is being carefully monitored and will most likely also be disrupted.
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most important oil route, moving approximately 20% of global oil demand and approximately 20% of liquified natural gas (LNG), according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Iran’s abilities to completely close the Strait may be limited, but other tactics could cause complications.
The U.S. has become significantly more energy independent over time; however, economists estimate that a 10% rise in gasoline prices would cause a temporary increase in headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation of 0.2%, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Such an impact would likely fade over time; bigger impacts are likely to be felt in China/Asia and Europe. The U.S. is now a net energy exporter, according to the EIA (unlike the 1970s).
Our base case: disruptions will be relatively short-lived (weeks versus months), but downside risks do exist.
AI’s impact on the economy is growing.
In Q4:2025, almost 1% of GDP growth was linked to information processing equipment and software, according to Apollo. For an economy that grew between 2.0% and 2.5%, this is a significant contribution that continues to increase.
Initial weekly unemployment claims have remained in the low 200,000 range, suggesting a stable labor market. Aside from the occasional one-off event, we have not seen a significant pickup in layoffs yet. Continuing unemployment claims have also moderated somewhat in recent weeks, suggesting that AI has not disrupted the labor market significantly (yet).
A notable investment firm (and short seller) published a thought experiment last week set from the perspective of an investor several years in the future. The piece envisioned a future where AI has replaced many human workers, causing a spike in unemployment and a drop in the stock market and home prices.
We don’t ascribe to this bearish view. Optimism typically prevails, and humans are very resourceful. We continue to believe that AI adopters may be well positioned relative to AI enablers. The type of jobs come and go, but the number of jobs still grows.
Bottom line – how to invest now.
Investors should avoid making abrupt changes and instead should harness volatility to strengthen portfolio diversification. For investors who remain underweight non-U.S. stocks, adding on weakness is recommended.
We believe non-U.S. stocks should comprise approximately 30% of an investor’s total equity allocation. Real assets (including gold) and high-quality fixed income are also good options to improve diversification.
Equity Takeaways:
Stocks fell in early Monday trading. The S&P 500 fell approximately 0.7%, to 6832. The tech-heavy Nasdaq also fell approximately 0.7%, while small caps were down approximately 1.2%. International shares were generally 2–3% lower. Crude oil prices rose 7–8%. Gold rallied approximately 2.0%, and the U.S. dollar also rose versus the global currency basket.
The S&P 500 remained stalled just below 7000 last week. Strong earnings have not been enough to break the stock market out to the upside. Even prior to news of the U.S. attack on Iran, the stock market was looking more vulnerable to a pullback, with declining momentum. Only approximately 12% of S&P 500 index constituents were trading at a new 20-day high last week, a low number.
The 6550–6650 range is an important area of support for the S&P 500, containing both the upward-sloping 200-day moving average and the 65-day low. We believe support will hold in the coming weeks. We don’t see a sharp correction as likely.
The software sector has been trying to rally at important support near the 2025 lows. Momentum readings for this sector remain extremely depressed. We believe the software sector likely has further downside before a true bottom is formed.
Gold’s recent price action looks very constructive. The sharp pullback in early February has been met with strong buying demand, and prices are higher again Monday morning on geopolitical concerns. A test of the all-time high around $5,500 per ounce appears likely.
Fixed-Income Takeaways:
Treasury yields moved lower last week amidst falling risk appetite; investors moved towards the safety of Treasuries. Last week, 10-year Treasury yields fell 15 basis points (bps) to 3.94%, down approximately 30 bps for the month. February 2026 was the best month for Treasuries since February 2025.
In early Monday trading, Treasury yields were rising 5–7 bps across the curve. Overall, 2-year Treasuries were yielding 3.45%, 5-year Treasuries 3.58%, 10-year Treasuries 4.01%, and 30-year Treasuries 4.67%. Rising oil prices could push inflation higher, and higher inflation is bad for bonds.
Credit spreads widened last week amidst falling Treasury yields. Concerns about private credit are slowly beginning to spill over into public markets. Investment-grade (IG) credit spreads widened approximately 6 bps last week, to 83 bps over Treasuries. Spreads remain tight on an absolute basis, suggesting that investors do not expect widespread credit stress.
Chief Investment Office
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1
Source: Evercore ISI, Macro Research (February–March 2026)
2
U.S. Energy Information Administration, “Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint.”
We gather data and information from specialized sources and financial databases including but not limited to Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Chicago Board of Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), Dow Jones / Dow Jones Newsplus, FactSet, Federal Reserve and corresponding 12 district banks / Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), ICE BofA (Bank of America) MOVE Index, Morningstar / Morningstar.com, Standard & Poor’s and Wall Street Journal / WSJ.com.
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