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Key Private Bank Investment Brief

Weekly market and wealth management insights 

Our leading experts bring you their timely research and insights on topics that matter most to you. With commentary on Fed activity, inflation, economic growth, interest rates, equity markets, bond markets, investment strategy, and more, our Chief Investment Office delves into today’s trends and tomorrow’s opportunities.

Latest Investment Brief

Monday, 6/30/2025

Key Takeaways:

The S&P 500 hit an all-time high last week. The recent rebound marks the swiftest-ever recovery back to a closing high after a decline of at least 15%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

After the recent rally, the S&P 500 is up 5.6% year-to-date (YTD) through June 27, 2025. International stocks have led the way in 2025, highlighting the benefits of diversification. YTD through June 27, 2025, developed non-US equities have risen 20.2%, while emerging market equities have risen 16.1%; US small caps have lagged, down 1.9%.

YTD through June 27, 2025, fixed income returns have been mixed. US core bonds have returned 3.6% while high-yield bonds have returned 4.6%. Municipal bonds have lagged, down 0.8%.

Real assets have been generally beneficial to portfolios in 2025. Gold has risen 24.4% YTD through June 27, and copper has risen more than 25%; oil is the exception, down 9.2%.

The US dollar remains at multi-year lows, down 10.3% YTD versus a global currency basket. There is no sign of an imminent rebound in the dollar.

“Hard” economic data is weakening – “catching down” with previously weak “soft” (survey) data. Geopolitical, economic, and trade policy uncertainty all remain elevated.

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We gather data and information from specialized sources and financial databases including but not limited to Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Chicago Board of Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), Dow Jones / Dow Jones Newsplus, FactSet, Federal Reserve and corresponding 12 district banks / Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), ICE BofA (Bank of America) MOVE Index, Morningstar / Morningstar.com, Standard & Poor’s and Wall Street Journal / WSJ.com.

 

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The Key Wealth Institute is comprised of financial professionals representing KeyBank National Association (KeyBank) and certain affiliates, such as Key Investment Services LLC (KIS) and KeyCorp Insurance Agency USA Inc. (KIA).

Any opinions, projections, or recommendations contained herein are subject to change without notice, are those of the individual author(s), and may not necessarily represent the views of KeyBank or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates.

This material presented is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or product or to employ a specific investment or tax planning strategy.

KeyBank, nor its subsidiaries or affiliates, represent, warrant or guarantee that this material is accurate, complete or suitable for any purpose or any investor and it should not be used as a basis for investment or tax planning decisions. It is not to be relied upon or used in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. It should not be construed as individual tax, legal or financial advice.

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