Sign On

Key Private Bank Investment Brief

Weekly market and wealth management insights 

Our leading experts bring you their timely research and insights on topics that matter most to you. With commentary on Fed activity, inflation, economic growth, interest rates, equity markets, bond markets, investment strategy, and more, our Chief Investment Office delves into today’s trends and tomorrow’s opportunities.

Latest Investment Brief

Monday, 7/7/2025

Key Takeaways:

One Big Beautiful Bill will lead to One Big Bloated Budget Deficit.

Interest rates will likely be structurally higher, and the US dollar will likely be structurally weaker, all else equal. Inflation may remain sticker than expected.

Four possible implications: 1) “crowding out” of non-defense discretionary spending will continue; 2) higher interest rates will persist; 3) less fiscal firepower will be available for future economic emergencies; 4) fiscal irresponsibility may test and/or undermine US credibility.

The current federal deficit exceeds 6% of GDP. This level of spending normally occurs during a recession, a pandemic or during a time of war. This situation is not the case today; economic growth remains solid, and unemployment is low at just over 4%. With the One Big Beautiful Bill, the deficit will exceed 7% of GDP, although tariff-related revenues could cause it to ease slightly.

The US is still exceptional in many important ways, and a debt crisis is not our base case. However, a weak Treasury auction and/or continued uncertainty from tariffs could rattle investors.

The US dollar is not likely to lose its reserve currency status anytime soon; any substitution will likely be gradual. The dollar still accounts for 88% of global foreign exchange transaction volume and approximately 58% of global foreign exchange reserves, according to Apollo’s Chief Economist.

Previous Weekly Insights 

1479491600

Chief Investment Office

Our experts provide you with the details you need and the insights you expect from Key Private Bank.

WORK WITH US

You don't work around us. We work around you. And for you.

Couple hiking in mountain forest
You don't work around us. We work around you. And for you.

WEALTH PODCAST

See the economic big picture and how it could impact you.

See the economic big picture and how it could impact you.

KEY QUESTIONS

Explore the potential in today's market trends.

Spiral staircase looking upward
Explore the potential in today's market trends.

We gather data and information from specialized sources and financial databases including but not limited to Bloomberg Finance L.P., Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Chicago Board of Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), Dow Jones / Dow Jones Newsplus, FactSet, Federal Reserve and corresponding 12 district banks / Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), ICE BofA (Bank of America) MOVE Index, Morningstar / Morningstar.com, Standard & Poor’s and Wall Street Journal / WSJ.com.

 

Key Wealth, Key Private Bank, Key Family Wealth, KeyBank Institutional Advisors and Key Private Client are marketing names for KeyBank National Association (KeyBank) and certain affiliates, such as Key Investment Services LLC (KIS) and KeyCorp Insurance Agency USA Inc. (KIA). 

The Key Wealth Institute is comprised of financial professionals representing KeyBank National Association (KeyBank) and certain affiliates, such as Key Investment Services LLC (KIS) and KeyCorp Insurance Agency USA Inc. (KIA).

Any opinions, projections, or recommendations contained herein are subject to change without notice, are those of the individual author(s), and may not necessarily represent the views of KeyBank or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates.

This material presented is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be an offer, recommendation, or solicitation to purchase or sell any security or product or to employ a specific investment or tax planning strategy.

KeyBank, nor its subsidiaries or affiliates, represent, warrant or guarantee that this material is accurate, complete or suitable for any purpose or any investor and it should not be used as a basis for investment or tax planning decisions. It is not to be relied upon or used in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. It should not be construed as individual tax, legal or financial advice.

Investment products, brokerage and investment advisory services are offered through KIS, member FINRA/SIPC and SEC-registered investment advisor. Insurance products are offered through KIA. Insurance products offered through KIA are underwritten by and the obligation of insurance companies that are not affiliated with KeyBank. 

Non-Deposit products are:

NOT FDIC INSURED NOT BANK GUARANTEED MAY LOSE VALUE NOT A DEPOSIT NOT INSURED BY ANY FEDERAL OR STATE GOVERNMENT AGENCY