Key Wealth Investment Brief

Key Takeaways:

Calm inflation reports and a moderation in consumer spending helped drive equity markets to new all-time highs.

The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) release reported inflation rose 3.4% year-over-year, in-line with market expectations. While still well above the 2.0% goal, underlying components in the report point to a positive shift. The energy portion of inflation has fallen significantly in the past two months, declining 5.7% and 1.5% in June and July, respectively. Additionally, the Shelter component of CPI, which is the largest component in the calculation, has only experienced modest increases in recent months.

The producer side of the economy also saw prices moderate with the Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation falling to 4.7%, down from 5.5%. Consumer spending also saw a slight drop in July, falling 0.2% month-over-month. It was not a surprise to see the slight drop as June’s Retail Sales were boosted by the sales jump from Amazon Prime Day, as well as the tourism boost from the World Cup. All three of these reports helped lower the odds of an imminent rate hike, which helped stocks reach a new all-time high during the week. 

The worsening budget deficit is keeping long-term rates elevated. 

The U.S. Department of the Treasury reported a budget deficit of $432 billion for July 2026, wider than the budget gap of $291 billion in July 2025. The fiscal year-to-date deficit is $1.799 trillion, compared to $1.629 trillion during the same period last year. As the deficit continues to widen, the 30-year Treasury yield has risen to levels we have not seen since 2007. 

With bond yields expected to remain elevated, it is important to consider how this will impact the equity market. The impact on stocks differs depending on why interest rates are rising. There are times when higher bond yields are good for stock prices because it suggests the economy is strong, while there are times when it is bad for stock prices because rates are moving up too quickly and the economy is experiencing an inflationary surge.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is changing the economy, with serious implications.  

As a percentage of GDP, the ongoing datacenter buildout is now larger than the internet buildout in the late 1990s. The size of the housing boom in the late 1990s to early 2000s was notably larger than the AI buildout, but the growth in datacenters is occurring much faster. While there are currently no signs of the datacenter buildout slowing down, it is important to remember cycles do not last forever. Additionally, if AI demand disappoints, it could represent a sizable risk to the economy. It would likely not have as large of an impact as the housing crisis but could be larger than the unwind seen following the dot-com bubble. 

When stocks are high, investors should consider going low, as in low volatility.

With equity markets reaching new highs, while their concentration continues to grow, we believe it is an opportune time to consider adding a low volatility strategy to your portfolio, if appropriate. 

Bottom Line – how to invest now.

We expect volatility to remain elevated, and we continue to advocate for robust diversification. Bonds may continue to struggle to add ample diversification amidst an environment of larger federal deficits and higher interest rates. Bonds may show higher correlations with stocks in such an environment, leading to less portfolio diversification. To gain the desired diversification in a portfolio, we continue to emphasize the use of New Tools where appropriate. We also note that international markets may also provide additional diversifying qualities and believe opportunities exist beyond large cap growth equities.

Even before the Iran War, we held the view that inflation could be persistent (due to rising nationalism along with other forces). The Iran crisis adds a material new source of risk, and although we don’t see history repeating itself in lock-step with the 1970s, investors may want to maintain allocations to real assets after the conflict ends.

In sum, real investors need real assets, and U.S. investors need exposure beyond U.S. financial assets and concentrated indexes.

Equity Takeaways:

Stocks were mixed in early Monday trading. The S&P 500 remained at approximately 7787, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose 0.3%. Small caps were down 0.3% and non-U.S. stocks were mostly lower.

The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high last week as the Index grew 0.4%. The Index was supported by calm CPI inflation and PPI inflation readings pushing down the chances of a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting. Year-to-date, the large-cap index is up 14.5%, while small-cap stocks have surged 25.8% year-to-date. Despite heading into September, which is historically the worst performing month of the year (and a pause would not be unexpected), we believe the market is set up to continue its move higher. The Index currently has a reasonable Price-to-Earnings (PE) multiple of approximately 20.0 times forward earnings. Additionally, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) is approaching its cycle lows, making downside protection and upside speculative positioning relatively cheap to implement.

Fixed-Income Takeaways:

The yield curve steepened last week, with short-term yields falling and long-term yields rising. Specifically, at the short end, 2-year yields moved 3 basis points (bps) lower, closing the week at 4.17%. Longer out on the yield curve, 10-year yields moved 4 bps higher to close the week at 4.69%, while 30-year yields moved 6 bps higher to close the week at 5.26%.

The drop in short-term yields likely occurred due to falling expectations of an interest rate hike at the September FOMC meeting. The calm CPI and PPI reports helped support this claim. The first rate hike is now expected in December. Long-term yields were likely pushed higher by the rising budget deficit. The 30-year Treasury auction last Thursday drew a yield of 5.22%, the highest we have seen since 2001.

In early Monday trading, yields were mixed: 2-year Treasury yields were trading at 4.17%, 5-year Treasury yields at 4.37%, 10-year Treasury yields at 4.70%, and 30-year Treasury yields at 5.28%.

Investment Grade and High Yield credit spreads widened modestly last week, ending the week at 79 bps and 265 bps, respectively. Both remain low by historical standards, especially the High Yields spread, which has a long-term average of 500 bps.

Key Takeaways:

Second quarter earnings have been extraordinary so far. 

S&P 500 earnings growth continues to far exceed expectations. With just less than 90% of companies having reported, the Index’s year-over-year earnings growth rate is 50.4%, the fastest growth since the second quarter of 2021.

The earnings growth is broad based, as every sector (except one) is growing faster than analysts’ forecasts. As of August 7, approximately 86% of companies are beating estimates, well above the 10-year average of 76%, and companies are beating estimates by an average of 29.2%, on pace for the highest earnings surprise since 2008. 

Alphabet and Amazon are a major reason for the surge in earnings, as they reported net unrealized gains from their investments in Anthropic that added $98 billion and $53 billion to their earnings, respectively. However, even if Alphabet’s and Amazon’s earnings were excluded, the earnings for the S&P 500 grew 32% in the second quarter – a very impressive rate.

The July employment report was weaker than expected, but better below the surface. 

Last Friday, the July Nonfarm Payrolls report surprised to the downside as it showed the U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in the month and the jobs gained in May and June were revised lower by 103,000. While the loss of jobs in the month was surprising, the majority of the decline was in the Leisure and Hospitality sector, which was likely due to the drop in tourism after the World Cup ended. The labor market continues to operate in the “low hire/low fire” environment and does not show signs of significant concern. 

The concerns regarding artificial intelligence (AI) replacing jobs do not seem to be materializing, at least as of yet. Since the launch of ChatGPT in November 2022, total employment has grown 3.2% as of July 2026. However, AI has changed the areas where job growth is occurring. In that same time frame, sectors that are less exposed to AI, such as Health Care and Construction, have seen significant job growth, while areas more exposed to AI, the Information sector, have experienced a considerable decline.

The odds of a rate hike are shifting. 

At the end of July, market participants were pricing in a 67% chance of a 25 basis point interest rate increase at the September 16 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Those odds steadily fell over the first week of August, driven lower at the end of the week by the employment report. The odds of a rate increase now stand at 44%. All eyes now turn to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report being released on Wednesday. The Inflation Nowcasting estimate from the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland is projecting July headline and core CPI to be 3.4% and 2.5%, respectively. Both numbers are lower than the reading in June, however, still well above the Fed’s target of 2.0%.

Bottom Line – how to invest now.

We expect volatility to remain elevated, and we continue to advocate for robust diversification. Bonds may continue to struggle to add ample diversification amidst an environment of larger federal deficits and higher interest rates. Bonds may show higher correlations with stocks in such an environment, leading to less portfolio diversification. To gain the desired diversification in a portfolio, we continue to emphasize the use of New Tools where appropriate. We also note that international markets may also provide additional diversifying qualities and believe opportunities exist beyond large cap growth equities.

Even before the Iran War, we held the view that inflation could be persistent (due to rising nationalism along with other forces). The Iran crisis adds a material new source of risk, and although we don’t see history repeating itself in lock-step with the 1970s, investors may want to maintain allocations to real assets after the conflict ends.

In sum, real investors need real assets, and U.S. investors need exposure beyond U.S. financial assets and concentrated indexes.

Equity Takeaways:

Stocks were mixed in early Monday trading. The S&P 500 remained at approximately 7757, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.1%. Small caps were down 0.4%, and non-U.S. stocks were mostly lower.

The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high last week as the Index rose 3.6%. Continued strong earnings releases and growing optimism around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz likely drove the Index higher. Year-to-date, the Index is up 14.1%, while small-cap stocks are the top equity performer, up 24.6%.

In addition to the S&P 500’s price reaching a new all-time high, the NYSE Advance-Decline line also reached a new all-time high, signaling broad market participation. We believe this market setup creates an opportunity for the S&P 500 to reach 8000 in the not-too-distant future.

Two areas that are cause for some concern are elevated interest rates/yields and oil prices. So far, the market has handled rising long-term yields, but if they continue to steadily rise, we are not sure the market is priced for this outcome. Similarly on the oil front, prices have come back down, hovering just below $80 per barrel; but if we experience a prolonged period above $95 per barrel, equity markets may begin to struggle. 

Fixed-Income Takeaways:

The yield curve moved lower across the curve last week, with short-term yields falling by more than long-term yields. Specifically, at the short end, 2-year yields moved 9 basis points (bps) lower, closing the week at 4.20%. Longer out on the yield curve, 10-year yields moved 8 bps lower to close the week at 4.65%, while 30-year yields moved 7 bps lower to close the week at 5.20%. 

The drop in yields likely occurred due to falling expectations of an interest rate hike at the September FOMC meeting. The weaker than expected employment report further lowered rate hike expectations. Market participants are now only pricing in one 25 bps increase in 2026. 

In early Monday trading, yields were higher: 2-year Treasury yields were trading at 4.22%, 5-year Treasury yields at 4.38%, 10-year Treasury yields at 4.68%, and 30-year Treasury yields at 5.22%.

Finally, overall Investment-Grade bond spreads remain tight despite the AI build-out.

Key Takeaways:

Earnings continue to amaze.

Coming into the second quarter, analysts were expecting earnings for the S&P 500 (in the aggregate) to grow by roughly 23% in the quarter. With 61% of the companies in the Index having reported, actual earnings growth is approximately 47%, according to FactSet.

Alphabet and Amazon are a major reason for the surge in earnings, as they reported net unrealized gains from their investments in Anthropic that added $98 billion and $53 billion to their earnings, respectively. However, even if Alphabet’s and Amazon’s earnings are excluded, the earnings for the S&P 500 grew 29% in the second quarter – a very impressive rate.

Moreover, of the companies that have reported, 77% have exceeded sales forecasts and 86% have exceeded earnings forecasts; both metrics are considerably above their historical averages.

A lackluster GDP number is hiding a surprisingly robust core GDP.

The advance estimate of Q2:2026 gross domestic product (GDP) was reported last week. The economy grew 1.5% in the quarter, down from 2.1% in the first quarter. However, final sales to domestic private purchasers, also known as “core GDP,” grew 3.9% in the quarter. Growth was boosted by strong consumer spending and investment in technology/artificial intelligence.

The components of the GDP report that were a drag on the overall growth number were net exports, which were likely negative due to companies trying to front run the introduction of new tariffs, and government spending, which was dragged down by oil sales from the strategic reserves, according to Evercore ISI.

The recent rise in bond yields validates our thesis that we are still in the midst of the “Old Normal” interest rate regime.

From the 1940s until the 1980s, U.S. interest rates steadily increased. After interest rates peaked in the 1980s, the U.S. experienced a steady decline in rates over the next 40 years, highlighted by interest rates hovering near zero in the 2010s. In other updates and, most notably, in our 2024 Outlook, we have argued that interest rates would be higher for longer, the days of zero-percent interest rates were over, and investors should anticipate a return to the “Old Normal.”

Beginning in 2025, long-term interest rates have been gradually climbing and are now back to multi-year highs. Thus far, equities have been able to withstand higher interest rates, but at some point, higher rates could prove to be a headwind for equities. Thus, investors should use periods of market strength to ensure their portfolio is sufficiently diversified as we outline below.

Bottom Line – how to invest now.

We expect volatility to remain elevated, and we continue to advocate for robust diversification. Bonds may continue to struggle to add ample diversification amidst an environment of larger federal deficits and higher interest rates. Bonds may show higher correlations with stocks in such an environment, leading to less portfolio diversification. To gain the desired diversification in a portfolio, we continue to emphasize the use of New Tools where appropriate. We also note that international markets may also provide additional diversifying qualities and believe opportunities exist beyond large cap growth equities.

Even before the Iran War, we held the view that inflation could be persistent (due to rising nationalism along with other forces). The Iran crisis adds a material new source of risk, and although we don’t see history repeating itself in lock-step with the 1970s, investors may want to maintain allocations to real assets after the conflict ends.

In sum, real investors need real assets, and U.S. investors need exposure beyond U.S. financial assets and concentrated indexes.

Equity Takeaways:

Stocks were positive in early Monday trading. The S&P 500 rose approximately 0.2%, to 7505, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq was flat. Small caps were up 0.1%, and non-U.S. stocks were mixed.

The S&P 500 rose approximately 1.1% last week as strong earnings releases continued. Year-to-date, the large-cap index is up 10.1%, while small-cap and value stocks are leading the way. Large-cap value stocks are outperforming their growth counterparts by more than 20 percentage points (as measured by the Russell 1000 Value/Growth Indices), while small-cap core is leading large-cap core by approximately 9 percentage points (as measured by the Russell 2000/1000 Indices).

The S&P 500 has been consolidating in recent weeks, leading to relatively muted returns. We expect these muted returns to continue as we head into August and September, which are historically the two worst months for S&P 500 performance.

Fixed Income Takeaways:

The yield curve experienced a bear steepening last week, as short-term yields fell and long-term yields rose. Specifically, at the short end, 2-year yields moved 4 basis points (bps) lower, closing the week at 4.29%. Longer out on the yield curve, 10-year yields moved 6 bps higher to close the week at 4.74%, while 30-year yields moved 11 bps higher to close the week at 5.27%, the highest level since 2007.

The rise in long-term yields likely occurred due to rising inflation concerns and discontent with the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) decision to hold interest rates steady at their meeting last week. The Committee’s decision was not unanimous, as three members voted for a 25 bps rate increase (0.25%). Market participants are worried that inflation will become entrenched if the Committee does not act soon. Fed Chairman Warsh believes that the market is carrying out passive tightening on its own as long-term real rates have risen. In addition, Investment Grade and High Yield spreads widened during the month of July.

In early Monday trading, yields were lower: 2-year Treasury yields were trading at 4.25%, 5-year Treasury yields at 4.40%, 10-year Treasury yields at 4.69%, and 30-year Treasury yields at 5.23%.

Holding Rates, Raising the Bar

Warsh keeps policy steady, welcomes debate, and reinforces the Fed’s commitment to its 2% inflation target.

The Federal Reserve left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% at today’s meeting, a decision that was mostly anticipated by the financial markets. While the policy action itself came as no surprise, the meeting provided further insight into Chair Kevin Warsh’s evolving leadership style and the Committee’s approach to monetary policy.

The statement changed only modestly, but the press conference offered a clearer picture of how this Federal Reserve intends to communicate and make policy decisions going forward.

The Statement: Evolution, Not Revolution

The July policy statement contained relatively few changes from June’s statement, signaling that policymakers see little reason to materially alter their assessment of the economy.

Rather than offering stronger forward guidance, the Committee largely reaffirmed its existing view of economic conditions while emphasizing that future policy decisions will continue to depend on incoming data.

The restrained statement itself became part of the message: this Fed appears increasingly comfortable saying less about where policy is headed and allowing the economic data to dictate future decisions. That theme was carried directly into Chair Warsh’s press conference.

A Different Leadership Style

Perhaps the defining moment of the afternoon came when Chair Warsh described the discussion inside the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as, “I asked for a good family fight, and I got one.”

The remark was more than a memorable sound bite. It underscored Warsh’s belief that healthy disagreement strengthens the policymaking process rather than undermines it. Later, he offered another phrase that might prove just as memorable: “Watch the ball, not the referee.”

The message was clear — investors should focus on the underlying economic fundamentals — not the personalities, politics, or day-to-day speculation surrounding monetary policy. For Warsh, the Federal Reserve’s responsibility is to evaluate the incoming data objectively and respond appropriately, rather than becoming the story itself.

Together, those two comments captured a leadership style that values rigorous debate, disciplined analysis, and evidence-based decision-making.

Dissent Moves Into the Open

The meeting also reflected a Committee that appears increasingly comfortable expressing differing policy views. Governors Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan dissented from the decision, in favor of a 0.25% rate hike, underscoring that opinions within the FOMC remain divided over the appropriate near-term path of monetary policy.

Rather than signaling dysfunction, the dissents reinforced Warsh’s broader message that rigorous debate strengthens the policymaking process. His willingness to encourage differing viewpoints suggests that he views independent thinking and open discussion as strengths rather than weaknesses.

While the Committee members may disagree on the appropriate timing and direction of future policy adjustments, Warsh made clear there is no disagreement over the Fed’s ultimate objective: returning inflation to its 2% target.

One Inflation Target

While encouraging debate, Warsh left little room for ambiguity regarding the Federal Reserve’s objective: "There is only one inflation target, and it’s 2%.” Despite continued progress on inflation, he stressed that policymakers remain committed to returning inflation sustainably to target before declaring the job complete.

The message reinforces that the Committee’s long-run objective has not changed, even as its communication style has evolved.

Less Guidance, More Data

A recurring theme throughout the press conference was the Fed’s reduced emphasis on providing explicit guidance about future meetings.

Rather than signaling a predetermined path for interest rates, Warsh repeatedly emphasized that policy would respond to incoming economic data. The implication is straightforward: "Every meeting remains live, policy is not on autopilot, and the hurdle for changing rates — higher or lower — will depend on how inflation, employment, and broader financial conditions evolve.”

Economic Resilience and Long-Term Growth

Warsh characterized the U.S. economy as remaining fundamentally resilient, even as growth moderates from earlier strength. He also highlighted the potential for artificial intelligence and technological innovation to improve productivity over time, suggesting that stronger productivity growth could ultimately support higher long-run economic growth while helping ease inflationary pressures.

Market Reaction

Markets interpreted the combination of the FOMC decision and Chair Warsh’s press conference as more hawkish than the policy alone suggested. Stocks declined sharply and Treasury yields rose as investors priced in the possibility that interest rates could remain higher for longer. Although the Committee left rates unchanged, Warsh underscored that inflation remains above target, declined to signal the next policy move, and reiterated that the Fed will respond to the data not market expectations. The market’s reaction reflected assessment of the path of monetary policy rather than the disappointment with today’s decision.

What This Means for Investors

The July FOMC meeting did little to change the Fed’s destination, but it reinforced that the journey remains uncertain. Inflation is still above target, the economy continues to show resilience, and the Committee is unwilling to commit to a predetermined policy path. That combination is likely to keep both bond and equity markets sensitive to incoming economic data over the coming months.

Rather than attempting to anticipate every shift in Fed expectations, investors should remain focused on the underlying fundamentals. As Warsh reminded markets: “Watch the ball, not the referee.” The data – not the headlines – will determine the next move, and as a result, maintaining a disciplined, long-term investment approach remains the best response to an environment where policy uncertainty is likely to persist.

Key Takeaways

Tensions in the Middle East are intensifying as the potential rises for re-escalation and a widening conflict.

The conflict in the Middle East intensified last week with both the U.S. and Iran striking each other. Tensions also spread last week as the Houthis, an Iran-backed rebel group in Yemen, threatened to blockade the Bab-al-Mandeb Strait, potentially restraining access to the Red Sea. More than eight million barrels of oil pass through the Strait each day. These two events led oil prices to spike back above $100 per barrel.

Tensions are also seemingly rising further east between China and Taiwan. While the U.S. economy has shown great resilience during the conflict with Iran, a conflict in Taiwan would likely have much larger ramifications. The trade share of global GDP from semiconductors, of which Taiwan is a major supplier, is now larger than oil. Additionally, the U.S. imports more artificial intelligence (AI) related-equipment from Taiwan than from any other country, meaning that if supply is disrupted, the U.S. economy would quickly feel the effect.

Tariffs are back, but less hawkish than feared.

President Trump announced new tariffs last week using Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. The new tariffs were implemented just as the previous tariffs, brought under Section 122 of the same Trade Act, were set to expire. The tariff rate for the majority of countries did not change, remaining at approximately 10%. A few large trading partners, including China, saw their rate increase to 12.5%. The daily statutory tariff rate rose by less than one percentage point and is still well below the level seen in the immediate aftermath of “Liberation Day.”

Second quarter earnings season continues to outperform already high expectations.

Coming into the second quarter, analysts were expecting earnings for the S&P 500 to grow more than 23% in the quarter. The expectation has now risen to approximately 38%, which would be the largest quarterly growth rate since the rebound from the pandemic.

Alphabet is a major reason for the jump in earnings expectations, as their earnings per share (EPS) nearly doubled due to investments in SpaceX and Anthropic, resulting in net unrealized gains of $98 billion. However, even if you remove Alphabet, earnings for the S&P 500 are still expected to grow 26%.

On the AI front, approximately 10 months ago, we noted that AI spending had entered a riskier phase; recently, it’s only gotten riskier. Hyperscalers continue their capital expenditure spending, but they are increasingly funding it with debt (and now equity issuance) rather than from cash flow.

Bottom Line – how to invest now.

We expect volatility to remain elevated, and we continue to advocate for robust diversification. Bonds may continue to struggle to add ample diversification amidst an environment of larger federal deficits and higher interest rates. Bonds may show higher correlations with stocks in such an environment, leading to less portfolio diversification. To gain the desired diversification in a portfolio, we continue to emphasize the use of New Tools where appropriate. We also note that international markets may also provide additional diversifying qualities and believe opportunities exist beyond large cap growth equities.

Even before the Iran War, we held the view that inflation could be persistent (due to rising nationalism along with other forces). The Iran crisis adds a material new source of risk, and although we don’t see history repeating itself in lock-step with the 1970s, investors may want to maintain allocations to real assets after the conflict ends.

In sum, real investors need real assets, and U.S. investors need exposure beyond U.S. financial assets and concentrated indexes.

Equity Takeaways:

Stocks were positive in early Monday trading. The S&P 500 rose approximately 0.7%, to 7464, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq rose approximately 1.0%. Small caps were up 0.5% and non-U.S. stocks were also up.

The S&P 500 fell approximately 1.6% last week despite continued strong earnings releases. Year-to-date, the large-cap index is up 9.0%. Due to the fact that the “Magnificent 7” stocks make up more than 40% of the S&P 500, the Index’s returns will be highly dependent on those seven stocks, which have struggled in recent weeks due to concerns around increased AI spending.

With midterm elections less than 100 days away, stocks are likely to see muted returns during the lead up to election day as potential policy changes push investors into a stalling pattern. After election day has passed, markets historically see a strong rebound as uncertainty clears.

Fixed-Income Takeaways:

Yields rose across the curve last week, with short-term yields rising more than long-term yields. Specifically, at the short end, 2-year yields moved 12 basis points (bps) higher, closing the week at 4.33%; longer out on the yield curve, 10-year yields moved 9 bps higher to close the week at 4.68%, while 30-year yields moved 5 bps higher to close the week at 5.16%. 

The rise in yields likely occurred due to rising inflation concerns as tensions rose in the Middle East. Rising inflation expectations changed the outlook for the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later this week. Coming into last week, market participants did not expect any changes to the federal funds rate. Coming into this week, market participants are now pricing in a 1-in-3 chance that the Committee will increase interest rates. It is highly unusual for investors to be this uncertain about a FOMC meeting outcome this close to the meeting date.

In early Monday trading, yields were lower: 2-year Treasury yields were trading at 4.32%, 5-year Treasury yields at 4.41%, 10-year Treasury yields at 4.65%, and 30-year Treasury yields at 5.13%.

Investment grade credit spreads widened slightly last week, ending the week at 79 bps. High-yield spreads saw a more significant rise, widening 14 bps to end the week at 280 bps, which is still well below its long-term average of 450 bps. 

Investment grade issuance continued its record pace, with July new issuance reaching estimates of $112 billion, an increase of 30% from last July. Year-to-date, there has been $1.2 trillion of new issuance, on pace for more than $2 trillion this year.