Key Wealth Investment Brief
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Our leading experts bring you their timely research and insights on topics that matter most to you. With commentary on Fed activity, inflation, economic growth, interest rates, equity markets, bond markets, investment strategy, and more, our Chief Investment Office delves into today’s trends and tomorrow’s opportunities.
Latest Investment Brief
Monday, 4/6/2026
Previous Weekly Insights
Key Takeaways:
Iran War: Some risks are now known, but other material risks remain unknown.
When the war began, we cautioned that risks are skewed to the downside. As we enter the war’s second month, some of those risks are now known but other material risks remain unknown, ranging from ground troops to further attacks on key energy assets throughout the Middle East to the terms of an ultimate resolution … from all sides.
The length of the conflict and the status of the Strait of Hormuz remain of paramount importance to investors. More U.S. troops have been sent to the region. It is not clear whether a ground invasion is imminent, or if President Trump is using the troops as a negotiating tactic.
Houthi rebels in Yemen recently entered the conflict on the Iranian side. These rebels have the potential to snarl maritime traffic in the Red Sea (and have done so in the recent past).
Investor complacency was shaken last week, but sentiment is not completely washed out. It is likely still too early for a contrarian buy signal.
“Peak panic” may be in front of us. In similar past conflicts, such as Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, weeks 6–8 marked “peak panic,” according to a study by Alpine Macro. The 2026 Iran War began on February 28.
Investors should not attempt to time the market. We continue to recommend staying diversified and letting cash accrue, but being prepared to commit if fear becomes rampant (an equity correction of 10%–15%). Watch for a spike in implied volatility (VIX), where higher readings (above 43) indicate elevated levels of fear. The VIX was approximately 30 in early Monday trading.
Odds of a recession are still below 50% but are rising. Inflation could pose challenges over the short to medium term. Longer term, a growth slowdown is likely the larger risk.
An old market adage states, “markets hate inflation, but they fear recessions.” Even if inflation rises over the short term, the larger risk to markets is likely a slowdown in growth that prompts recession concerns.
Even before the war, inflation was moving higher in certain important sectors. Import prices of semiconductors were rising more than 10% year-over-year at the start of 2026, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
The “slow-to-hire / slow-to-fire” labor market continues. Job growth remains very sluggish, with non-farm payrolls oscillating between monthly gains and losses since mid-2025. Layoffs, on the other hand, remain muted. Initial unemployment claims remain low, and continuing claims have fallen in recent months. Initial claims typically rise sharply if the economy is entering a recession.
Disruption from artificial intelligence (AI) appears to be gaining momentum.
We continue to advise tilting towards AI adopters and away from AI enablers. Tilting away from large cap growth stocks has been helpful year-to-date (YTD). Large growth stocks are down approximately 12.7% YTD through March 27, while value stocks are generally positive.
AI adopters include sectors like staples, financials, health care, industrials, and materials. These sectors can benefit as AI technology is rolled out and becomes less expensive.
Bottom line – how to invest now.
Key Wealth will be holding another national client call on Wednesday, April 1, 2026, at 4:00 pm ET / 1:00 pm PT. The topic of the call is “Managing Wealth During the Fog of War, AI Disruption, & An Uncertain Economic Path.”
Key Wealth National Client Call 4/1/26 Webinar Registration Link - Zoom
Markets generally “settle up” over time. Long-term investors should not become too bearish. We continue to recommend a fully diversified portfolio amidst elevated uncertainty. Non-U.S. stocks have been hit harder (as we thought they would be) but could also recover faster. Similarly, bonds have provided little diversification since the war began. We would be tempted to add to bonds where appropriate.
Energy crunches, while inflationary in the short run, ultimately cause economic growth to slow/contract. Bonds can provide important diversification in such an environment. Lastly, real assets could provide some important support in an increasingly supply-constrained and more volatile world.
Short-term downside volatility is the price paid to earn long-term outperformance: in the past 75 years, on average, the S&P 500 experienced an average annual decline of 14% but historically still finished the year higher 78% of the time, according to Creative Planning.
Investors should accept the fact that uncertainty is always prevalent. Admitting you don’t know what the future holds (no one does) can be somewhat liberating as it forces you to focus more of your time on what truly matters.
Incorporate a wide range of outcomes into your plan; focus on probabilities not predictions.
Incorporate a “rules-based” approach into your financial plan: “If stocks drop by 10%, I will buy ___%. If stocks drop another 10%, I will buy ___%.”
Extend your time horizon and diversify across various scenarios. This means avoiding trying to “time the market” and diversifying by geography, by size, by sector, and by security.
Focus on what’s important and what you can control. You can’t control the future, but you can control your risk profile, time horizon, asset allocation, asset location, investment expenses, and, most importantly, your reaction.
Equity Takeaways:
Stocks were mixed in early Monday trading. The S&P 500 rose approximately 0.2%, to 6382. Both the tech-heavy Nasdaq and small caps were essentially flat. International shares were mixed.
The S&P 500 broke lower through the 200-day moving average and the psychological 6500 level last week, setting a new 65-day low in the process. The trend is now down until proven otherwise. The 2024–2025 highs around 6000 would be the next logical support zone.
Since the middle of 2025, the S&P 500 has been in a narrow range. Momentum has been stalling for quite some time, and the market has finally rolled over.
Correlations typically rise during selloffs as many stocks are sold all at once. Correlations are likely to continue rising until the market bottoms.
The VIX curve remains inverted. When spot VIX trades at a premium to 3-month VIX (an inverted VIX curve), it is a sign of fear. The current inversion is approximately 3 points. Last April, the VIX curve inverted by approximately 10 points before the market bottomed.
The number of stocks making a new 20-day low is another sign of fear. Near market bottoms, new 20-day lows will typically rise above 50% of all S&P 500 issues. This indicator is currently only at 9% of issues, implying that investors are not overly bearish.
The put/call ratio is another common sentiment indicator. This ratio is around the middle of its typical range – again, investors do not seem overly bearish by this metric.
The bottom line is that many sentiment indicators are not illustrating that investors are scared. It is likely too early for a contrarian buy signal. That said, a speedy end to the conflict in Iran would likely result in a significant short-term bounce.
Corporate earnings are not a leading indicator, but it is nonetheless positive that 2026 year-end analysts’ forecasts have continued to rise during 2026. Over the past several months, sectors like energy, materials, and even technology have seen substantial positive revisions for projected 2026 earnings estimates.
Fixed-Income Takeaways:
Bond yields have increased significantly YTD, which has reset valuations to more attractive levels. As an example, 2-year Treasury yields have risen more than 50 basis points (bps) in March, while 10-year Treasury yields have risen by 49 bps in March.
Since early February, 2-year Treasury yields have risen relative to 10-year yields, flattening the yield curve; 2-year yields are very sensitive to Federal Reserve (Fed) policy. Concerns of higher inflation have pushed Fed rate cut expectations into the future, and 2-year Treasury yields have risen as a result.
If investors become more worried about slowing growth as opposed to inflation, Treasury yields could fall (bond prices could rally). In this scenario, fixed income would once again be a good hedge within diversified portfolios.
Corporate credit spreads have widened in orderly fashion since the beginning of February. Spreads have widened in sympathy with equity market weakness. High-yield bonds have underperformed investment-grade (IG) bonds, which makes sense as high-yield bonds are more sensitive to equity markets and the economy.
Key Takeaways:
Iran War: No easy way out, but tahe situation can change quickly. President Trump’s tone on the conflict has changed multiple times over the past several days.
Early Monday, a “risk on” tone prevailed as President Trump postponed further strikes on Iranian power plants and infrastructure, citing productive talks with Iranian leadership. Much uncertainty remains.
Since the beginning of the war, we have cautioned that risks are skewed to the downside; we still believe this to be the case.
Even if Trump attempts to pivot, it’s unknowable how others (Iran, etc.) will respond. The tariff-induced Liberation Day was also a “man-made” situation, but the situation in Iran is far more complicated. There is no easy way out, but that doesn’t mean that all hope is lost. It just means higher uncertainty for longer.
The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, and the Red Sea could be next. Energy prices have surged, and important infrastructure assets have been attacked, which could be offline for years (keeping oil prices higher for longer). Other commodities, such as fertilizers, have also seen price spikes.
Near-term inflation expectations are surging; longer-term inflation expectations remain steady. Inflation is broadening. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is now in a bind; job growth is slowing, as inflation is rising.
The national price of gasoline rose approximately 30% in the 18 days prior to March 18, to $3.88 per gallon, according to Bianco Research. A change of this magnitude will add 0.5% to 0.6% to the month/month change in the Consumer Price Index, according to Bianco.
U.S. 1-year inflation swaps have increased from approximately 2.4% in early February to more than 3.4% in recent days, according to Evercore ISI1, suggesting market participants are worried about short-term inflation. That said, 5-year 5-year forward breakevens (a measure of expected 5-year inflation during a period that begins 5 years in the future) have remained stable in recent weeks. In other words, long-term inflation expectations are not moving sharply higher (yet).
In his comments last week, Fed Chair Powell expressed confusion over the economic outlook, in large part driven by the conflict in Iran. Market participants have moved from expecting approximately 0.50% of rate cuts in 2026 to now expecting zero cuts (and possibly a rate hike). The current federal funds rate target range is 3.50% to 3.75%.
Job growth remains sluggish, with monthly nonfarm payroll growth oscillating between job gains and job losses in recent months. Layoffs remain muted, suggesting companies are reluctant to significantly cut staff. Continuing claims have also fallen somewhat in recent weeks. “Low hire / low fire” continues to be an apt description for the labor market.
Bottom line – how to cope with extreme uncertainty.
We advise staying diversified, allowing some cash to accrue, but being prepared to put money to work if fear-driven selling becomes rampant. Watch for a spike in implied volatility (VIX), where higher readings (above 43) indicate elevated levels of fear.
We continue to recommend a fully diversified portfolio amidst elevated uncertainty. Non-U.S. stocks have been hit harder (as we thought they would be) but could also recover faster. Similarly, bonds have provided little diversification since the war began. We would be tempted to add to bonds where appropriate.
Energy crunches, while inflationary in the short run, ultimately cause economic growth to slow/contract. Bonds can provide important diversification in such an environment. Lastly, real assets could provide some important support in an increasingly supply-constrained and more volatile world.
Short-term and downside volatility is the price paid to earn long-term outperformance: in the last 75 years, the S&P 500 has experienced an average intra-year decline of 14% but has still finished the year higher 78% of the time, according to Creative Planning.
On Wednesday, March 4, 2026, Key Wealth held a national client call with special guest Brian Portnoy. The discussion centered around factors that drive good financial decisions, the difference between chasing “more” and achieving true financial wellbeing, and how to find clarity when the world feels anything but clear.
The call replay link is above, and some of our own thoughts on these important themes are below.
Accept the fact that uncertainty is always prevalent. Admitting you don’t know what the future holds (no one does) can be somewhat liberating, as it forces you to focus more of your time on what truly matters.
Incorporate a wide range of outcomes into your plan; focus on probabilities not predictions.
Incorporate a “rules-based” approach into your financial plan: “If stocks drop by 10%, I will buy ___%. If stocks drop another 10%, I will buy ___%."
Extend your time horizon and diversify across various scenarios. This means avoiding trying to “time the market” and diversifying by geography, by size, by sector, and by security.
Focus on what’s important and what you can control. You can’t control the future, but you can control your risk profile, time horizon, asset allocation, asset location, investment expenses, and, most importantly, your reaction.
Equity Takeaways:
Stocks were sharply higher in early Monday trading. The S&P 500 rose approximately 2.2%, to 6646. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose approximately 2.4%, while small caps rose approximately 3.0%. International shares were 2–4% higher.
Last week marked the fourth straight down week for the S&P 500, which was down approximately 5% year-to-date (YTD) through 3/20/26. Underneath the surface, dispersion remains very high, providing a good opportunity for active management.
Earnings growth remains solid, but earnings are not a leading indicator. If the economy were to weaken sharply, earnings would likely follow.
Investor sentiment is not completely washed out. Indicators like the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) bull-to-bear ratio, as well as new S&P 500 lows, are not indicating selling exhaustion. It is too early to call a contrarian buy signal.
The financial sector has been the worst sector YTD. Only 8% of financial sector stocks are trading above their 50-day moving averages, a low level. If financials can bottom and turn higher, it would be a positive signal for the rest of the market.
The value and high-dividend factors have provided some shelter YTD, both eking out small gains since the start of the year. These indices tend to be composed of more defensive sectors (staples, health care, utilities).
Fixed-Income Takeaways:
Treasury yields moved higher across the curve last week, with more pronounced moves on the front-end of the curve. 2-year Treasury yields moved 18 basis points (bps) higher last week and are approximately 53 bps higher for the month. 10-year Treasury yields were 14 bps higher last week.
In early Monday trading, Treasury yields were 5–6 bps lower, likely in response to President Trump’s latest comments on possible de-escalation of the Iranian conflict. 2-year Treasuries were yielding 3.84%, 5-year Treasuries 3.96%, 10-year Treasuries 4.34%, and 30-year Treasuries 4.91%.
Investors are pricing fewer rate cuts (and potentially rate hikes) in 2026 due to rising inflation fears. During his press conference last week, Fed Chair Powell essentially stated that the Fed will only cut rates if actual progress on inflation is shown.
As Treasury yields rose last week, corporate bond spreads tightened slightly. Investment-grade (IG) corporate bond spreads tightened 5 bps, to 87 bps. High-yield spreads also tightened modestly. Higher-quality bonds are outperforming lower quality bonds amidst the recent volatility.
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Recap
The Fed Is Standing Still – But the Ground Is Shifting
March 18, 2026
Key Takeaways:
- The Fed held rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75%, signaling continued patience but also an uncertain outlook.
- Changes in the Statement point to a more balanced framework.
- Fed Governor Miran dissented in favor of a 0.25% cut.
- Inflation concerns remain, but upside growth is encouraging.
- The dot-plot suggests a measured path forward, not an urgent easing cycle.
- This is not yet a pivot, but the formation of one might be developing.
Policy Decision: Steady, But Not Static
The fed funds rate was left unchanged at a target range of 3.50%–3.75%. The policy statement showed only modest adjustments. Chairman Jerome Powell struck a familiar tone: data-dependent, patient, and measured.
Importantly, the changes to the statement were subtle but telling. The Committee acknowledged a more gradually balanced set of risks, with a modestly reduced emphasis on upside inflation concerns and a growing recognition of potential softening in economic momentum. The statement also noted geopolitical developments, including tensions in the Middle East, as a source of uncertainty. While the overall framework remains intact, these adjustments suggest a Fed that is beginning to shift from a predominantly inflation-focused stance toward a more two-sided risk assessment.
This does not yet constitute a policy pivot, but it does mark a meaningful evolution in how the Committee is framing the balance of risks. If sustained, this shift in tone lays the groundwork for a policy path that is increasingly sensitive to downside risks, not just inflation persistence.
The Dot Plot: A Measured Path, Not a Rush
The updated dot plot reinforces a message of patience. While the distribution shows some dispersion, the center of gravity suggests a gradual and deliberate path, not an aggressive easing cycle.
A meaningful number of participants continue to signal limited cuts this year, with only a small cohort projecting a more pronounced easing path. The presence of lower-end dots highlights growing concern around downside risks – but these remain in the minority. The takeaway is clear: the Committee is open to easing but not yet convinced it is necessary.
SEP: A More Resilient Economy, but Not Yet Mission Accomplished
The March Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) delivered a subtle but important shift in the Fed’s narrative: the economy is proving more resilient than previously expected, even as the path back to price stability remains incomplete. The Fed upgraded its real GDP outlook across all forecast years, signaling stronger underlying momentum:
This broad-based upward revision – particularly the increase in the longer-run estimate – suggests policymakers see less structural drag and greater economic capacity than previously assumed. In short, the economy is not slowing as quickly as expected.
Labor Market: Still Tight, Gradual Cooling
The unemployment rate projections were largely steady, reinforcing the view that labor market rebalancing remains gradual:
Despite restrictive policy, the Fed continues to expect only modest softening in labor conditions, consistent with a soft-landing baseline rather than a recession scenario.
Inflation: Progress, but Still Above Target Near-Term
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Inflation projections reflect continued disinflation, but not a clean victory:
The upward revision to 2026 inflation underscores a key tension: while inflation is trending lower, it is doing so more slowly than previously expected, keeping the Fed cautious.
What It Means: Stronger Growth Complicates the Policy Path
Taken together, the updated projections reinforce a critical message:
- Stronger growth reduces urgency for rate cuts.
- Persistent inflation limits the Fed’s flexibility.
- A soft landing remains the base case, but not a guaranteed outcome.
The combination of firmer growth and stickier inflation helps explain why the Committee remains hesitant to signal an aggressive easing cycle. If anything, the SEP suggests the Fed is becoming more confident in the economy’s durability but less confident that inflation will return to target quickly.
Powell’s Press Conference: Calm, Controlled, Intentional
Chair Powell’s messaging was consistent with the statement and projections. He emphasized continued data dependence, confidence that policy is appropriately restrictive, and a willingness to remain patient as conditions evolve. As Powell emphasized, “We are well positioned to wait for greater confidence before making any adjustments to our policy stance.” Importantly, Powell avoided signaling urgency around rate cuts. At the same time, he did not push back against the idea that risks are becoming more balanced.
Chair Powell said he will serve as chairman until his successor is confirmed by the Senate. He also said he has no intention to leave the Fed until the ongoing DOJ investigation is over. He stated that he has not yet made a decision as to whether he will complete his term as a Fed board member (which ends in 2028). This pushes back against the case for a dovish tilt premised on Kevin Warsh taking over as Chair in the near term.
On broader issues – including geopolitical developments and leadership uncertainty – Powell remained measured, reinforcing the Fed’s commitment to its mandate while acknowledging an increasingly complex backdrop. In the words of Powell himself, “I want to emphasize, nobody knows, the economic effects could be smaller or much bigger. We just don’t know.”
What This Means for Investors
For investors, this meeting reinforces a critical shift that the Fed is moving from a one-sided inflation fight to a two-sided risk framework. This shift has meaningful implications:
- Front-end rates may remain anchored in the near term.
- Volatility could increase as markets recalibrate around timing and magnitude of rate cuts.
- Credit markets will continue to balance higher yields against widening risk considerations.
- Portfolio positioning should remain disciplined, with a focus on liquidity, high credit quality, and flexibility.
Importantly, today’s environment continues to reward incremental yield capture, particularly as spreads have widened relative to earlier in the year.
The Bottom Line
The Fed did not move rates, but its narrative is evolving. This is not yet a pivot or a signal of imminent easing. This is something more subtle and arguably more important; it’s a shift in how the Fed sees the world. And when that changes, policy is never far behind.
Key Takeaways:
Our “three disruptive forces” that we previously wrote about in our 2026 Market and Economic Outlook: Managing Wealth in an Age of Massive Disruption and Profound Change continue to collide, causing major disruptions (and challenges and opportunities, too).
1) The democratization of private markets is facing strains as investors’ misunderstanding/misuse of illiquidity has created challenges. Emotionally-driven selling can create opportunities for patient and diligent investors. We continue to recommend selective exposure to private investments where appropriate.
2) The democratization of private markets helped (indirectly) give rise to artificial intelligence (AI), but now “disruption from within” has triggered fears over job displacement and major industry disarray (i.e., software). This could pose medium-term challenges, but the longer-term benefits from AI could be immense, providing opportunities for patient investors.
3) The war in Iran escalated further last week, another example of our third theme for 2026: nationalism. We still believe the conflict could last several weeks (not days), but risks are growing, suggesting the conflict could last a few months. If so, complacent investors could capitulate, creating near-term volatility. Yet, while short-term risks are negatively skewed, if our base case call of “no recession” ultimately plays out, opportunities will emerge for long-term investors.
With respect to Iran, as noted last week (and again above), risks are skewed to the downside (i.e., troops on the ground; terrorist attack in the U.S., etc.), but things could quickly surprise on the upside (i.e., Iran concedes; Trump declares victory, etc.). The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed for now.
What would likely trigger a recession? Oil prices at more than $140/barrel and gasoline at more than $4/gallon for some period of time. Higher prices at the pump are initially inflationary, but ultimately deflationary. We don’t believe today’s situation will be a repeat of the 1970s, but we continue to recommend real assets as a strong portfolio diversifier.
Bottom line – how to cope with extreme uncertainty.
We advise staying diversified, allowing some cash to accrue, but being prepared to buy the dip if fear-driven selling becomes rampant. Watch for a spike in implied volatility (VIX), where higher readings (above 43) indicate elevated levels of fear.
On Wednesday, March 4, 2026, Key Wealth held a national client call with special guest Brian Portnoy. The discussion centered around factors that drive good financial decisions, the difference between chasing “more” and achieving true financial wellbeing, and how to find clarity when the world feels anything but clear.
The call replay link is above, and some of our own thoughts on these important themes are below.
Accept the fact that uncertainty is always prevalent. Admitting you don’t know what the future holds (no one does) can be somewhat liberating as it forces you to focus more of your time on what truly matters.
Incorporate a wide range of outcomes into your plan; focus on probabilities not predictions.
Incorporate a “rules-based” approach into your financial plan: “If stocks drop by 10%, I will buy ___%. If stocks drop another 10%, I will buy ___%."
Extend your time horizon and diversify across various scenarios. This means avoiding trying to “time the market” and diversifying by geography, by size, by sector, and by security.
Focus on what’s important and what you can control. You can’t control the future, but you can control your risk profile, time horizon, asset allocation, asset location, investment expenses, and, most importantly, your reaction.
Equity Takeaways:
Stocks rose in early Monday trading. The S&P 500 rose approximately 1.1%, to 6706. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose approximately 1.3%, while small caps rose a similar amount. International shares were generally 1.5% to 2.5% higher.
Recent price action for the S&P 500 Index has remained rangebound, but continued signs of weakness are emerging. The recent pattern is similar to the late 2024 / early 2025 pattern prior to the “Liberation Day” selloff in April 2025.
Volatility seems likely to continue over the near-term. The 21-day moving average for the S&P 500 crossed below the 100-day moving average, implying that the stock market is no longer in an uptrend. Markets that are no longer trending higher tend to be more vulnerable to corrections.
Correlation between stocks has also increased (also similar to what we saw in early 2025). Correlation generally increases during volatile periods, as investors tend to sell assets en masse.
Overall stock market volatility has surged relative to individual single stock volatility. This type of market action is another sign that macroeconomic events are driving stock prices, and individual company fundamentals are taking a backseat for the moment.
Last week was unprecedented in terms of oil price volatility. Last Monday, March 9, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil traded within a trading range of $38 on a single day (intraday high to low). For the entire week, WTI crude traded as low as around $80/barrel before closing close to $100/barrel.
Fixed Income Takeaways:
Treasury yields have risen across the curve in recent weeks, with short-term yields rising more than long-term yields (a.k.a., a “bear flattener”). In early Monday trading, yields were falling 5–7 basis points (bps) across the curve, reversing some of the recent rise. Overall, 2-year Treasuries were yielding 3.68%, 5-year Treasuries 3.81%, 10-year Treasuries 4.22%, and 30-year Treasuries 4.86%.
Expectations for near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts have diminished in recent weeks due to rising inflation expectations. Two-year Treasury yields have risen by more than 30 basis points since the beginning of March. Short-term Treasury yields are more sensitive to Fed policy expectations than long-term Treasury yields.
The Fed will release their next Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) this week on Wednesday, March 18. The Fed is not expected to cut rates this week, but their comments on the forward outlook for inflation, economic growth, and interest rates will be closely watched.
New-issue corporate bond supply has been very heavy in March. Most deals have received solid demand, nevertheless spreads have widened somewhat in recent weeks. We continue to favor bonds from higher-quality, liquid issuers in today’s uncertain market.
Chief Investment Office
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