Economic and Market Research
Valuable Insights & Opportunities
The latest research, data, and insights from the investment experts at Key Private Bank.
Key Investment Perspectives: First Quarter 2021 Review
Large multi-directional moves in risk markets occurred in the first quarter of 2021 in response to civil unrest and to more-promising economic and company earnings data. US interest rates rose quickly on strong demand for goods and services as pent-up discretionary income and stimulus spending began to be unleashed.
Key Questions: What Are Bonds Good For?
Bonds possess some defensive qualities, but investors should be mindful of over-diversifying and over-liquifying their portfolios.
Key Questions: What Does Fiscal Stimulus Mean For Fixed Income?
Interest rates may continue to climb, but some bonds stand to benefit.
Key Questions: What’s the Difference Between Inflation and Reflation?
While there are similarities, their differences mean different things for the markets.
Key Private Bank Investment Brief
The global spread of COVID-19 has caused significant market movements and uncertainty among investors.
Your investment brief houses our experts' latest analysis and strategies for navigating the turbulence created by the outbreak—keeping you updated on our thinking and how these changes might impact your portfolio.
Key Questions: How Much Stimulus Is Too Much?
How much stimulus would trigger inflation might be the bigger question.
Key Questions: Is the Backup in Bond Yields Bad for Stocks?
Last week, the yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note jumped to 1.54%, surging 50 basis points (0.50%) in the past month for one of the fastest monthly increases on record.
Key Questions: What Does the Crisis in Texas say About Energy Markets?
In our November 30, 2020 edition of Key Questions titled, "What Surprises Might 2021 Have for Us?," we said the following: "Crude oil exits 2021 above $60 per barrel, and Energy is the best performing sector in the S&P 500 Index. With the global economy set to rebound sharply once vaccines become available, it becomes apparent to market participants just how much damage was done to US upstream production capabilities. Demand increases significantly, and the slow reaction function of producers causes prices to rise more than the consensus expects. Equity investors who have shunned the Energy sector are forced to chase performance, further driving rotation into Cyclicals."
Key Questions: What Causes Bubbles To Burst?
In prior essays, we described how certain conditions that existed during periods in which asset bubbles were created are again apparent. Of these conditions, there are three that commonly surfaced: Interest rates were at or near zero; central banks assured the markets that interest rates would remain low for an extended period, forcing investors out on the risk curve; and an abundance of liquidity. These circumstances are evident today.
Key Investment Perspectives: February 2021
The world’s attention in the opening month of 2021 was riveted on the January 6 storming of the US Capitol and the presence of thousands of National Guardsmen in Washington for the Biden-Harris inauguration.
Key Questions: Are Long-Term Interest Rates Heading Higher?
Since the start of January, the 10-year US Treasury note yield has climbed 25 basis points to 1.16%. With short-term US Treasury yields anchored by the near-zero federal funds rate and limited volatility in the intermediate maturities due to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Treasury purchases, fluctuations in long-term interest rates will drive changes in the shape of the Treasury yield curve.
Key Questions: Is GameStop’s Rise "Game Over" for the Stock Market?
Last week, we addressed the question, "Is the Federal Reserve fueling a stock market bubble?." In it, we discussed how ultra-low interest rates – and assurances from the Fed that they would remain very low for a long time – have incentivized investors to move out the risk curve to generate a reasonable rate of return.