Cain Brothers Newsletters: Industry Insights
“Industry Insights” is a bi-weekly email newsletter published by Cain Brothers, a division of KeyBanc Capital Markets. The newsletter features innovative and original perspectives about healthcare services, healthcare IT, and life sciences from our team of experienced investment bankers. Read the latest newsletter content below, and subscribe to start receiving the newsletter in your inbox.
Not Roadkill: Underwriting the Tech Stack That Sits on Top of Epic
Until recently, the initial diligence question for any health tech/digital health company was simple: does it integrate with Epic? Today, the bar has evolved. Investors and strategic acquirers want to know if a company can successfully sit alongside Epic, whether its use cases show up on Epic’s roadmap, and who controls the data underpinning a product or workflow. We outline three reasons for this evolution — the current environment for health systems, the trend around electronic medical record (EMR) upgrades, and Epic’s response.
Health systems spend 3% - 5% of their operating revenue on technology and services vendors. Despite this level of expenditure, health systems are still looking for efficiency. Median health system operating margins slid to 0.4% year-to-date from 1.6% in 2024, and the OBBBA’s cuts to governmental programs are expected to reduce hospital revenue by an additional $68 billion in 2026 – 2027, with deeper cuts likely in 2027. Every technology and vendor dollar must be rejustified.
EMR replacement is expensive and time consuming. Northwell is an example. The system announced its Epic migration in 2023 at a $1.2 billion price tag, and the full rollout likely won’t finish for years. KLAS data backs this up. EMR purchase decisions fell roughly 40% in 2025, with zero large-system migrations. Meanwhile, CHIME’s 2026 CIO survey found EMR optimization or workflow alignment, usability improvements, and feature customization are a top budget priority; and 78% of large systems are treating point solution consolidation as a standing discipline.
With wholesale upgrades and transitions to EMR and infrastructure on ice, Epic has also refocused its attention towards solutions that sit adjacent to its product. At its UGM (User Group Meeting) last year, Epic rolled out an ERP for workforce and procurement: three named AI agents spanning documentation, patient engagement, revenue cycle, and a foundational model trained on 300 million records. These modules are aimed directly at some of the 90+ companies that raised $9 billion+ in the digital front door arena on the “integrated with Epic” pitch over the past few years.
Despite these announcements, margin pressures at health systems cut both ways, and we see opportunities for investors. Vendors who price on hard ROI (e.g., collections lift, denial and revenue recovery, documented labor savings) are winning a share of the health system wallet. AI-driven revenue cycle tools and ambient documentation are at the top of CIOs’ wish lists, with 76% planning increased spend in these areas, even as overall budgets shrink.
Epic will host its 2026 UGM in mid-August, and there have been rumblings of executive departures. We’ll be tuned into any new announcements, but in the interim, we have developed a framework for underwriting the vendor stack adjacent to Epic: (1) mapping the target against Epic’s existing roadmap and announcements, (2) determining the level of integration depth, (3) analyzing the degree of revenue dependence on Epic as a channel partner, and (4) moat durability, or whether the target’s value proposition is replaceable by Epic. To the extent you’re evaluating opportunities, our team is happy to go deeper.
We are in an environment where hard ROI and dollars need to back up a company’s position around the Epic ecosystem. The companies that can back up their positions are commanding interest, and the ones that aren’t are finding the “we integrate with Epic” position no longer works.
Previous Industry Insights
- July 29: Expanding Access to Mental Health Services: Addressing Barriers to Care
- July 15; Ambient AI and the Shift From Documentation to Clinical Intelligence
- July 6; Pharma Services M&A: Market Access and Potential Business Model Impact From AI Take Center Stage
- July 2026: Health Systems Recent Activity Report
- Health Systems Insights: Q2 2026
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