Cain Brothers Newsletters: Industry Insights

<p>Cain Brothers Newsletters: Industry Insights</p>

“Industry Insights” is a bi-weekly email newsletter published by Cain Brothers, a division of KeyBanc Capital Markets. The newsletter features innovative and original perspectives about healthcare services, healthcare IT, and life sciences from our team of experienced investment bankers. Read the latest newsletter content below, and subscribe to start receiving the newsletter in your inbox.

Not Roadkill: Underwriting the Tech Stack That Sits on Top of Epic

August 12, 2026 – Banker Commentary by Rishi Soni

Until recently, the initial diligence question for any health tech/digital health company was simple: does it integrate with Epic? Today, the bar has evolved. Investors and strategic acquirers want to know if a company can successfully sit alongside Epic, whether its use cases show up on Epic’s roadmap, and who controls the data underpinning a product or workflow. We outline three reasons for this evolution — the current environment for health systems, the trend around electronic medical record (EMR) upgrades, and Epic’s response.

Health systems spend 3% - 5% of their operating revenue on technology and services vendors. Despite this level of expenditure, health systems are still looking for efficiency. Median health system operating margins slid to 0.4% year-to-date from 1.6% in 2024, and the OBBBA’s cuts to governmental programs are expected to reduce hospital revenue by an additional $68 billion in 2026 – 2027, with deeper cuts likely in 2027. Every technology and vendor dollar must be rejustified.

EMR replacement is expensive and time consuming. Northwell is an example. The system announced its Epic migration in 2023 at a $1.2 billion price tag, and the full rollout likely won’t finish for years. KLAS data backs this up. EMR purchase decisions fell roughly 40% in 2025, with zero large-system migrations. Meanwhile, CHIME’s 2026 CIO survey found EMR optimization or workflow alignment, usability improvements, and feature customization are a top budget priority; and 78% of large systems are treating point solution consolidation as a standing discipline.

With wholesale upgrades and transitions to EMR and infrastructure on ice, Epic has also refocused its attention towards solutions that sit adjacent to its product. At its UGM (User Group Meeting) last year, Epic rolled out an ERP for workforce and procurement: three named AI agents spanning documentation, patient engagement, revenue cycle, and a foundational model trained on 300 million records. These modules are aimed directly at some of the 90+ companies that raised $9 billion+ in the digital front door arena on the “integrated with Epic” pitch over the past few years.

Despite these announcements, margin pressures at health systems cut both ways, and we see opportunities for investors. Vendors who price on hard ROI (e.g., collections lift, denial and revenue recovery, documented labor savings) are winning a share of the health system wallet. AI-driven revenue cycle tools and ambient documentation are at the top of CIOs’ wish lists, with 76% planning increased spend in these areas, even as overall budgets shrink.

Epic will host its 2026 UGM in mid-August, and there have been rumblings of executive departures. We’ll be tuned into any new announcements, but in the interim, we have developed a framework for underwriting the vendor stack adjacent to Epic: (1) mapping the target against Epic’s existing roadmap and announcements, (2) determining the level of integration depth, (3) analyzing the degree of revenue dependence on Epic as a channel partner, and (4) moat durability, or whether the target’s value proposition is replaceable by Epic. To the extent you’re evaluating opportunities, our team is happy to go deeper.

We are in an environment where hard ROI and dollars need to back up a company’s position around the Epic ecosystem. The companies that can back up their positions are commanding interest, and the ones that aren’t are finding the “we integrate with Epic” position no longer works.

Recent Deals

July 2026

strive medical

acquired by

cardinal health

Sell-Side Advisor

strive-medical-cardinal-health
July 2026

us fertility

$1.068 Billion

Senior Secured Credit Facilities

Joint Lead Arranger
Joint Bookrunner
Administrative Agent

us-fertility-senior-secured-credit
July 2026

athenahealth group

$1.038 Billion

Senior Secured Add-on Term Loan

$500 Million

7.5% Senior Secured Notes due 2032

Joint Lead Arranger
Joint Bookrunner

athenahealth-group
June 2026

smileamericapartners

acquired by

kaltroco

Sell-Side Advisor

smile-america-partners-kaltroco
June 2026

nutrisense

acquired by

dexcom

Financial Advisor

nutrisense-dexcom
May 2026

vsp

$500 Million

5.4% Senior Notes Due 2033

$500 Million

5.65% Senior Notes Due 2036

Active Joint Bookrunner

vsp-issues-public-bonds
March 2026

bcdsk

affiliated with

highmark

Financial Advisor

blue-cross-blue-shield-kansas-city
March 2026

dme express

acquired by

palladium equity partners

Sell-Side Advisor

dme-express-acquired-by-palladium-equity-partners
March 2026

supercare health

Joint Lead Arranger
Joint Bookrunner
Administrative Agent

supercare-health-excellere
March 2026

supercare health

acquired by

excellere

Sell-Side Advisor

supercare-health-excellere-partners
February 2026

highroads

acquired by

harris healthcare

Sell-Side Advisor

highroads-harris-healthcare
February 2026

hlsg

acquired by

sterling group

Sell-Side Advisor

hlsg-acquired-by-sg

Cain Brothers, a division of KeyBanc Capital Markets is a trade name of KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC.

KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. and KeyBank National Association (“KeyBank N.A.”) are separate, but affiliated companies. Securities products and services are offered by KeyBanc Capital Markets Inc. and its licensed securities representatives. Banking products and services are offered by KeyBank N.A.

Securities products and services: Not FDIC Insured • No Bank Guarantee • May Lose Value

Please read our complete KeyBanc Capital Markets disclosure statement.

Connect With Us

Find an Expert